Minimum wage could rise to $14.20 in Upstate New York at the end of 2022.
New York State Department of Labor Commissioner Roberta Reardon issued the order calling for the increase for counties outside of New York City, Long Island, and Westchester to rise by $1 per hour. The current rate is $13.20.
The decision comes following a required economic analysis by the State Division of Budget which found evidence of pressure for wages to rise in the midst of a continued pandemic-driven labor shortage.
Key findings from the DOB’s report include that regional unemployment rates outside of New York City are at historic lows. The 3.1 percent rate for this area for the four months from April through July 2022 is the lowest in the history of the data going back to 1976 and is lower than the national 3.5 percent rate for the same month.
Also, low-wage industries are over-represented among the State’s remaining job losses due to the early impact of the pandemic. Although the minimum wage workers’ share is likely to rise as the low-wage sector recovery proceeds, the size of the minimum wage workforce is likely to continue to be constrained by a rise in entry-level wages as firms compete for workers.
The report also found that New York is experiencing a job gap of 351,000 relative to its pre-pandemic peak. Anecdotal evidence combined with alternative data sources argue that labor shortages could account for much of New York’s remaining job gap, particularly Upstate.
Like the rest of the nation, the New York labor market is expected to continue to slow in the coming months, with employment growth projected to slow from 4.3 percent in 2022 to 0.8 percent in 2023. State employment is not expected to reach its pre-pandemic level until 2026
A wage increase would affect about 200,000 workers, 44% of whom are full-time employees. About 25% support children under the age of 18.
A public comment period is now open on the order. Feedback may be e-mailed to regulations@labor.ny.gov by December 11, 2022.
If accepted, the wage increase would take effect on December 31, 2022.
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